What's going on inside the Abbott government regarding Holden? And for that matter, what's going on in Detroit, where the company's future is actually to be determined?
Both questions will no doubt become clear in the end, but right now, it's shadow boxing all round.
A muscular discourse of hard-nosed market rationalism has prompted signals out of Canberra that after decades of taxpayer support, the jig is finally up.
No more public money would be found to keep the brand, a virtual byword for Australian-ness, operating here.
The government, of course, is right that the local motor industry is slavishly dependent on government assistance.
But a common response might be ''so what?''. Car makers the world over receive protection from competitors in one form or another. Australia's car makers, we are told by industry advocates, are actually at the lower end of taxpayer assistance. The sector, we are further assured, delivers far more to the economy than it costs.
Officially, Holden says no decision has been made in Detroit about its Australian arm.
It seems to be a different story leaking out of Motown itself. Government ministers have certainly been briefing to the contrary - assuming they know.
But where does the truth lie?
Labor, the unions, and even Holden management, believe the government is posturing in a bid to minimise political fallout due its way when what it believes is a done deal actually comes to pass. Holden strategists suspect the Coalition wants Holden to pull the pin as soon as possible to both own the closure and put as much distance between the announcement and the South Australian state election it is hoping to win.
Unsurprisingly, Holden does not want to play ball. If it's going, it wants the government's fingerprints prominently on the decision to dissolve.
Managing director Mike Devereux played a dead bat at a Productivity Commission hearing in Melbourne on Tuesday, leaving all sides none the wiser as to the company's immediate future.
He said no decision had been made in Detroit. Some says he's foxing, some say he's not. Perhaps he literally does not know?
The question for Tony Abbott, who has already pre-empted his own Productivity Commission to some extent by declaring there will be no more money for Holden above that already on the table, is what are the real consequences of departure, economic and political? This is, suddenly, anything but an abstract question.
The closure of Holden would prompt the collapse of the components sector employing 18,000 Victorians directly and 6000 South Australians. The supply chain reaches into every state.
It would see Toyota leave, also. Toyota's 4200 employees would join the 4500 Holden employees who would have already been tipped on to the dole queue.
Consider the knock-on effects. The two manufacturers spend a combined $2.25 billion on car parts orders in Victoria alone and source another $600 million worth of parts supplies in Adelaide. That would be gone.
The social and economic consequences of the end of this industry could be calamitous and in SA's case, quite sustained.
Dark predictions of state recessions seem credible against these numbers.
With the Abbott government travelling poorly in the polls, albeit nearly three years before the next election, it is clear the Prime Minister has started out his tenure with little political capital.
The collapse of the Australian car industry would use all of it and then some.
