You can stop asking me "should I go in the Medibank Private float?" because you'll know on Monday when we're told the price.
Oh, sorry – going on past form, you won't know that until you've already coughed up.
Instead there'll be a range of possibilities, perhaps wide enough to make all the difference to whether you're getting a bargain or not.
The final price will then be decided behind closed doors after the big institutions and super funds have bid.
But two can play at that game. Governments never close floats early because that antagonises voters, a fact you can use to your advantage.
It's a matter of biding your time and seeing how the market is going. That will tell you whether the price will be set closer to the top or bottom end of the range.
Or if the market still looks wobbly, whether to wait until after it lists. Then swoop in at a lower price.
Come to that, if everything is cheaper there might be better buys than Medibank Private.
Another thing: a market correction is a wonderful opportunity for newcomers to the sharemarket to build a portfolio.
No matter how good an investment Medibank Private might turn out to be – frankly, anything that comes to the market with no debt and a brand name like it can't really fail – it's safer holding a few different stocks. Yes, Medibank Private could be one of them.
The beauty is there's bound to be a small discount for mum and dad investors so the government can pretend it's looking after the battlers. Better still that way voters – oops, I mean, new shareholders – are assured the price will rise when the shares trade. So long as the market behaves itself, that is.
Trouble is it doesn't look as if it's likely to be in any state to offer a stag profit on day one, even in late November when Medibank lists.
Global sharemarkets are worried about Europe – who wouldn't be? – and the prospect of rising US interest rates next year which, it should not be overlooked, is only going to happen if its economy picks up steam.
It's when rates rise because of inflation you need to watch out. If anything, deflation is the bigger economic threat.
But back to Medibank Private's price range. The government's advisers have been closely watching how NIB – coincidentally, a demutualization, a poor man's privatisation – is trading.
While a fraction the size, it's the only health insurer that's already listed.
The trouble is it trades at a higher than average price/earnings (p/e) ratio which shows how many years before you get your money back in profits. The higher the p/e – NIB is around 18 – the more expensive the stock. So it isn't cheap, I suspect precisely because it's on its lonesome.
That could make Medibank Private too expensive, in which case NIB might become the better value after the float. Or even during it, if shareholders sell to raise money for the float. Its price has been skedaddling down since it became obvious that Medibank Private was going to list this year.
Well, you did ask me.
