Economists are expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia board to look through this week's global markets-shaking volatility when it meets on Tuesday, with no change expected to rates.
As financial markets stabilised throughout the week, analysts are now tweaking their forecasts of whether the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at all this year, and what impact this delay and confusion could have on the RBA's own monetary policy decisions.
"Global developments remain front and centre and increase the risk of further RBA easing," RBC Capital Markets head of Australian fixed income strategy Su-Lin Ong said. "The fall in the Australian dollar helps but needs to be viewed in context: 'fair value' is falling too.
"While the hurdle to cut further remains high, the RBA may well acknowledge some shift in risks when it convenes next Tuesday for its September board meeting."
Before this week's bout of volatility, in which billions melted on major exchanges from Shanghai to Wall Street, markets were pricing in about even odds of a US rate rise in September.
While US economic data continues to be promising, the market is now anticipating the first Fed hike to take place in April. The chances of a cut next month are now about one in four, despite stronger-than-expected preliminary US GDP data released on Thursday night.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia is still forecasting the first US rate hike to take place at the end of this year or the very beginning of the next.
"I do think they've overreacted," currency strategist Joseph Capurso said. "It was May [2016] earlier this week; now it's April and I expect that will continue to drop back to either December or January."
The release of the US economic growth figures for the June quarter had little impact on the market's expectations of an RBA rate cut next week. Before the release of the data, market pricing suggested a 33 per cent chance of a rate cut, and this remained largely unchanged at 29 per cent on Friday morning.
JP Morgan Australian chief economist Stephen Walters said they were not expecting any big changes to Australian interest rates or the accompanying statement when the RBA board meets on Tuesday.
"Despite the market turmoil we've all been talking about, it is not enough to change the RBA's thinking; their speeches and published statements imply they would need a combination of [domestic] factors to cut again."
Mr Walters said the RBA's core assumption, that a falling dollar would do a lot of the work for it, had so far proved accurate and it would need a spike in the currency or unemployment to cut rates again.
"They'd need to see the growth momentum really falling away. Admittedly, the capex numbers released this week were pretty awful but not worse than we had already seen."
Mr Walters said he was expecting the RBA would be tracking the impact of the recent volatility on household spending for a possible downside wealth effect: people spending less as they become more concerned about their financial position.
JP Morgan estimates Australia's economic growth is closer to 2.7 or 2.8 per cent rather than the 3-plus per cent rate the country has become used to, echoing RBA governor Glenn Stevens' comments that Australia may need to get used to a new handle for its growth rate.
While the bond market is expecting at least one more Australian interest rate cut in the coming 12 months, Colonial First State head of economic research Stephen Halmarick said he no longer anticipated another rate cut after the RBA's statement on monetary policy earlier this month, in which the central bank said unemployment had peaked.
"The RBA is quite happy with what the promise of Fed's hikes are doing to the [Australian] dollar," Mr Halmarick said, adding the iron ore price would need to lose at least another $10 to necessitate an additional rate cut.
Mr Halmarick is forecasting the US Federal Reserve will raise rates in September.
"But it will be a finely balanced decision. The data is saying they're good to go while the market is saying no."
